Oregon Smashes Low Presidential Primary Turnout Record by More than 10%

Apparently, Oregon has set a new low presidential primary turnout record. Turnout for 2012 is 34.33%* a whopping 12% below the previous presidential primary low turnout and about even with the previous non-presidential primary low.

Last Friday Oregonian columnist Jeff Mapes wrote that Oregon Secretary of State Kate Brown thought the primary election might be "in the 'low 40s,' which would be the lowest voter participation for the state's presidential primary in modern history."

Mapes noted that the lowest turnout rate for a presidential primary year was was in 2004 with 46.4%.** Lowest non-presidential primary turnout was in 1998 with 34.9%.

It looks like 2012 has smashed the 2004 low presidential primary turnout record by about 12% and matched the 1994 non-presidential primary low.

The ease of vote by mail is not stopping registered voter flight from Oregon elections.

Republican participation dropped 15% this year (40.1%) from 2008 (55.9%) in circumstances which are fairly similar to 2008 when McCain had already locked up the Republican nomination then as Romney has now. The 15% drop is not good news for Oregon Republicans or the Romney campaign.

Democratic participation dropped by more than half this year (36.1%) from 2008 (75.8%) though the drop in Democratic participation certainly has to do with the fact that in 2008 Obama and Hillary Clinton were still locked in a horse race for the Democratic nomination.  Still it's also not good news for Democrats and the Obama campaign.
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*preliminary figure as of 05/16/2012 12:17 PM
**Mapes explains the 2004 figure rather than the lower 1996: "If you go back through the old primary statistics on the Elections Division website, you'd be tempted to say the record low turnout was in 1996, when it was only 37.8 percent. But that wasn't a presidential primary. The Legislature created a separate March presidential primary that year in an attempt to give the state more clout."

Oregon Primary: Romney 71.62%, Paul 12.45%, Santorum 9.14%, Gingrich 5.46%

Secretary of State's unofficial results for the Oregon Republican Presidential Primary:

Gingrich - 13,753 votes (5.46%)
Paul - 31,356 votes (12.45%)
Romney - 180,411 votes (71.62%)
Santorum - 23,024 votes (9.14%)
Write-in - 3,366 votes (1.34%)
TOTAL - 251,910 votes

Best and worst counties:
Gingrich - Harney (8.25%); Lane (4.35%)
Paul - Grant (18.16%); Lake (8.59%)
Romney - Deschutes (77.67%); Wheeler (64.58%)
Santorum - Morrow (12.61%); Deschutes (6.82%)

President Obama received 254,861 votes (94.94%) out of 268,526 votes for president in the Democratic primary. (slight difference in figures between the counties page and the overall page)
Best and worst counties: Yamhill (100%); Harney (74.11%).

Turn out by party:
Democratic: 36.10% - 299,829 ballots cast of 830,502 registered voters
Republican: 40.08% - 269,055 ballots cast of 671,329 registered voters
Nonpartisan (nonaffiliated, minor parties, others): 17.47% - 96,380 ballots cast of 551,724 registered voters
TOTAL: 32.40% - 665,264 ballots cast of 2,053,555 registered voters

Anchorage Daily News Sees Continuing Circulation Decline Despite Better Numbers in the Industry

The Anchorage Daily News saw a continuing decline it its daily circulation (-4.51%) and its Sunday edition (-5.68%) from a year ago. Audit Bureau of Circulations notes that in the same period there was a 0.68% average circulation gain for other daily newspapers and a 5% gain in Sunday circulation.

“Fueled largely by increases in digital circulation and branded editions, daily circulation for the 618 newspapers reporting comparable multiday averages rose .68 percent. Circulation for the 532 newspapers reporting comparable Sunday data increased 5 percent.”

This means that in the last year the Anchorage Daily News lost 5% more in its daily circulation than the average newspaper and a whopping 10% more in its Sunday circulation.

Over four years the Anchorage Daily News has lost about a third of its circulation (-31.72% daily; -33.98% Sunday).

Coincidentally at the beginning of this same four year period the Anchorage Daily News began running mostly negative articles on then Governor and Vice Presidential candidate Sarah Palin and has continued the pattern. (Previously there had been some quite positive articles.)

Anchorage Daily News circulation numbers:
. . . . . . . . . . . . .daily . . . .Sunday
March 2008 . . 64,042 . . 71,233
March 2009 . . 58,468 . . 63,160
March 2010 . . 49,019 . . 53,764
March 2011 . . 45,791 . . 49,859
March 2012 . . 43,725 . . 47,029

Track Your Vote in Oregon 2012

Here's the link to verify that your county has counted your vote in Oregon.

Apparently you have only ten days* after election day to contest if your vote for some reason was not counted. You need to contact your county elections office if you find your vote was not counted.
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*This information is from OregonGuy (a blogger no longer posting and who is missed).

Two Amateurs Give New England Historic Genealogical Society a Black Eye

Michael Patrick Leahy reports that when questions were raised about a claim by New England Historic Genealogical Society (NEHGS) genealogist Chris Child based on the research of amateur genealogist Lynda Smith, Smith went to work to verify the information. By contrast, Child and NEHGS have gone silent.

Chris Child a genealogist of NEHGS publicly stated there was genealogical evidence that Massachusetts senatorial candidate Elizabeth Warren's great-great-great-grandmother was Cherokee based on marriage certificate content. His source was Lynda Smith.

When further questions were asked about the truthfulness of the marriage certificate evidence, Smith and another amateur genealogist, Sam Morningstar, tried to verify Smith's claim. The only response of Chris Child and the NEHGS was at first to say they did not have the original transcript but an "electronic transcript" and then later to refuse to verify or comment further.

"NEHGS is not conducting research on Elizabeth Warren nor are we commenting beyond what has already been covered by the media.

"Thank you.

"Tom Champoux

"NEHGS"

By contrast, amateur genealogists Lynda Smith and Sam Morningstar, dug into the evidence and found not only the premise flawed (Oklahoma didn't have a marriage application process in the year specified which might have asked for racial background) but that the evidence is actually against that great-great-great-grandmother being Cherokee. Sam Morningstar discovered:

"'There are rumors of Indian blood along this line SOMEWHERE (or associated families) but it doesn't appear to be supported by any documents. The extant documents do show O.C. Smith living in White American society with no apparent tribal affiliation. Also, her parents Wyatt and Margaret (Peggy) testified in court in TN...to verify John Curtis/Dolly Honeycutt marriage in Chatham NC in 1793. This would indicate a couple that was part of Anglo/settler society. Margaret in particular is a little mysterious at this point, but the fact that she is allowed to testify in court and has knowledge of a marriage in Chatham NC in early 1790s wouldn't point to a connection with a Cherokee community. Wyatt is found in more documents and he is clearly not affiliated with the Cherokee community. He was from early settler stock.'"

It seems Chris Child and the NEHGS are not concerned with making sure the evidence they present is true.

Kudos to Lynda Smith and Sam Morningstar for caring to verify genealogical evidence that the professionals at NEHGS are unwilling to do.

Michele Bachmann's Dual Citizenship

Talk about convoluted reasoning. Mark Krikorian over at National Review is incensed that Michele Bachmann accepted dual Swiss citizenship automatically given to her because of her husband's heritage. Krikorian (who continues the anti-dual citizenship argument here and the marriage analogy here) likens dual citizenship to bigamy.

"Dual citizenship isn’t simply a matter of convenience, a way to make travel easier or a sentimental tie to the Auld Sod. It’s a formal declaration of divided allegiance, civic bigamy, if you will."

Huh? If you're going to make the marriage comparison, why not polygamy (except for the current presumed Republican nominee's religious background)? Bigamy is when you're not legally allowed to have two marriages. Polygamy is when the two marriages are legal (like dual citizenship). Does Krikorian knows the difference between bigamy and polygamy? Apparently not.

Aside from Krikorian's definitional problem, the idea of dual citizenship as cheating in marriage leads one to the somewhat ludicrous definition of vacationing abroad as being a one-night stand or actually living abroad as being adultery.

However, at least Krikorian merely calls for Bachmann to refuse dual citizenship. Newsmax also brings in as a major gun on this controversy Lori Stacey (a "conservative blogger" according to Newsmax) who thinks Bachmann should resign her seat in the House of Representatives. Stacey, of course, is well known for her major contributions to conservatism. Oh, wait, I've never heard of her either.

Why does a peripheral figure like Stacey get big press from a conservative outlet like Newsmax just because she is willing to say outrageous things against a real conservative leader with real conservative accomplishments? It is understandable why such as Kathleen Parker*, Jennifer Rubin, Andrew Sullivan and David Frum get cited by the liberal media for attacking conservative politicians. But why does a conservative news outlet tout such people?

I think it's a silly issue. Michele Bachmann having Swiss citizenship says nothing about her commitment to the United States. Just as a person having only U.S. citizenship says nothing about his commitment to the United States. Actions are the key to commitment and dual citizenship is not the harbinger either of cooling passion or treason.

Not a bright day for National Review. Even worse for the Newsmax staff for quoting someone truly silly
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*Parker even won a Pulitzer prize. One wonders whether liberal commentators are miffed that a fairly mediocre writer like Parker can waltz away with a Pulitzer just because she used to be a conservative and now bashes conservatives. If it weren’t such a roadblock to getting a job in journalism, there might be a lot of journalist versions of Elizabeth Warren claiming they had a 1/32nd conservative background in order to be in the running for Pulitzers or the Washington Post conservative blogger position.

14 Heroes Who Died Fighting in the Afghanistan War April 25 to May 7, 2012

April 25 - Staff Sgt. Andrew T. Brittonmihalo, 25, of Simi Valley, Calif., died in Kandahar province, Afghanistan, of injuries sustained from small arms fire.

April 28 - Master Sgt. Scott E. Pruitt, 38, of Gautier, Miss., died while conducting combat operations in Helmand province, Afghanistan.
- Pfc. Christian R. Sannicolas, 20, Anaheim, Calif., died in Kandahar province, Afghanistan, of injuries sustained when his vehicle encountered an improvised explosive device.

April 30 - Sgt. Nicholas M. Dickhut, 23, of Rochester, Minn., died in Zharay, Afghanistan, from wounds sustained when enemy forces attacked his unit with small arms fire.

May 1 - Capt. Bruce K. Clark, 43, Spencerport, N.Y., died in Tarin Kowt, Afghanistan.

May 2 - They died in Logar province, Afghanistan, of injuries sustained when insurgents attacked their unit with an improvised explosive device. Killed were:
2nd Lt. David E. Rylander, 23, of Stow, Ohio.
Spc. Junot M. L. Cochilus, 34, of Charlotte, N.C.

May 3 - Staff Sgt. Zachary H. Hargrove, 32, of Wichita, Kan., died in Bagram, Afghanistan.

May 4 - Master Sgt. Gregory L. Childs, 38, Warren, Ark., died in Kabul, Afghanistan.

May 6 - Sgt. John P. Huling, 25, of West Chester, Ohio, died while conducting combat operations in Helmand province, Afghanistan. Huling’s death was originally reported by the International Security Assistance Force, which characterized it as the result of gunshot wounds inflicted by an individual wearing an Afghan National Army uniform. This incident is under investigation.
- Staff Sgt. Thomas K. Fogarty, 30, of Alameda, Calif., died in Ahmad-Kheyl, Afghanistan, from injuries sustained when enemy forces attacked his unit with an improvised explosive device.

May 7 - They died in Ghazni province, Afghanistan, of wounds suffered when enemy forces attacked their unit with an improvised explosive device. Killed were:
Sgt. Jacob M. Schwallie, 22, of Clarksville, Tenn.
Spc. Chase S. Marta, 24, of Chico, Calif.
Pfc. Dustin D. Gross, 19, of Jeffersonville, Ky.